Learning from Mistakes

Let’s hope Brian Cashman does.

His refusal to include Ian Kennedy in a deal for Johan Santana, at least this past year, turned out to be wrong.  Plain and simple.

Now he has a chance to redeem himself.

From MLB Trade Rumors….

Today, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News says the Yankees’ chances for Peavy are improving as Kevin Towers struggles to find a match with an NL team on the pitcher’s list.  Feinsand says Towers wants two pitchers and an outfielder for Peavy.  He believes the Yanks could build a deal around Phil Hughes or Austin Jackson, though they might need to include Ian Kennedyas well.  Brian Cashman seems a bit more open to trading Hughes than he was a year ago. 

“Brian Cashman seems a bit more open to trading Hughes than he was a year ago. ”  Ya think?!?!?

Serisouly, if this is a legit offer that the Padres will do, how can the Yankees not do this?  Haven’t they learned?  Can you imagine a rotation of Peavy, Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain and whoever else?  You wanna break the bank, make it Lowe or Burnett.  You don’t, spend that money on Texiera. 

The only part of that deal I would try to switch would be Melky instead of Austin Jackson.

And I don’t even care if Hughes turns out good in SD, pitching in PetCo.  Peavy will be 28 next year, and is under team control for the next three.  You have to make this deal.

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9 responses to “Learning from Mistakes

  1. Forgetting about the fact that it seems that Peavy wants to stay in the NL for a moment, I think you are severely overestimating the value of Melky Cabrera if you think he’s the kind of top prospect that needs to be included in a deal to get a Peavy. And possibly Ian Kennedy too. Just look at what the Brewers paid for Sabathia as your guide.

    Melky Cabrera is a dime-a-dozen type weak-OBP outfielder with very limited upside. Not every GM is willing to trade the 2nd best pitcher in the game (see Halladay, Doc if you’re wondering who #1 is) for a Homer Bush-type hitter!

  2. Of course I am. I was just going off the rumors of what the Twins wanted for Santana.

    I’d send Austin Jackson, also.

    And in terms of Ian Kennedy, I was just working with the rumors that are out there.

  3. Yes, in hindsight, the Yankees seemingly adamant refusal to trade Melky Cabrera at the peak of his value was a big mistake. But do you think that it mattered in terms of how unsuccessful the team was this year?

    I would be surprised if the Yankees were able to get Peavy for anything less than Hughes + Kennedy + Jackson + some other C-type prospect in the low minors.

    What does this do to the Yankees system though? Or does it not matter because of the rotation it gives the team in 2009? And if you go with a 1-2-3 of Wang/Sabathia/Peavy/Pettite/Some Other Dude, is it even smart to put the drunk in the rotation? Because I would think it’d be smarter to shore up an otherwise middle-of-the-packish bullpen from the 7th inning on.

  4. I disagree. Remember, Peavy’s numbers are greatly inflated by pitching in Petco in the NL West. Here’s one Yankee blog’s projection of Peavy pitching for the Yankees over the next few years. His projected ERA+ is 109, 109, 112, 111 and 104 from 2008 through 2012. Those are not great numbers and certainly not worth giving up two of the top three prospects in the organization.

  5. Or does it not matter because of the rotation it gives the team in 2009? And if you go with a 1-2-3 of Wang/Sabathia/Peavy/Pettite/Some Other Dude, is it even smart to put the drunk in the rotation? Because I would think it’d be smarter to shore up an otherwise middle-of-the-packish bullpen from the 7th inning on.

    That is crazy. While Joba’s innings will be rightly curtailed, he was a very good starter this season and very good starters are much more valuable than light’s out relievers, especially if Pettitte and Some Other Dude (Rasner or Kennedy for example) are in the rotation.

  6. I’m not sure Peavy’s numbers are that helped by PetCo. HIs home/road splits, other than this year, are pretty close.

    ERA+ is a park-adjusted number, and his have been insanely good: 171, 134, 99, 159, 134.

  7. But you also need to take into consideration that he’s been pitching in the awful NL West (which is part of the inferior NL). He’d be going from the worst division in baseball to the best, from the best pitchers’ park to a solid hitters’ park, and from a decent defensive team to a well below average one. That’s a big drop and helps explain the projections I linked to above.

  8. On Joba: I guess I am biased for pitchers that, on average, can make it through the 6th inning.

    I don’t know though. If I was rooting for the Yankees (perish the thought), I would think that there’s some value in having him stay in the bullpen. Why? Because: a) he’s young – will be only 23 next year; b) hasn’t pitched more than 120 innings ever; c) has more zip on his fastball as a reliever; d) has better stats as a reliever; and e) pitches for a team that has the financial ability to buy any other starter it wants while it takes a cautious approach to Chamberlain’s development.

    On Peavy: ERA and ERA+ is not the only stat you need look at when looking at pitchers (ERA+ does a far less comprehensive job than OPS+ does).

    But now I just wonder whether the Yankees have enough in their system to get someone like Peavy without seriously harming the farm system.

  9. On Joba: I guess I am biased for pitchers that, on average, can make it through the 6th inning.

    This was his first season as a starter! I guess if he isn’t pitching 8 innings a start, his 2.60 ERA means nothing.

    I don’t know though. If I was rooting for the Yankees (perish the thought), I would think that there’s some value in having him stay in the bullpen. Why? Because: a) he’s young – will be only 23 next year;

    That’s a reason to have him start, not pitch 3 innings every 5 days.

    b) hasn’t pitched more than 120 innings ever;

    And he never will if he stays in the pen.

    has more zip on his fastball as a reliever; d) has better stats as a reliever;

    Is there anyone in baseball who the above doesn’t apply to?

    ) pitches for a team that has the financial ability to buy any other starter it wants while it takes a cautious approach to Chamberlain’s development.

    But he won’t be able to develop if he wastes away in the pen. Why take your best pitching prospect and limit him to 70 innings, even with leverage taken into consideration? I just don’t get it. He has to start or he’ll never reach 200 innings. Obviously they need to be careful and limit his innings, but they have to let him start or he’ll never become a dominant starter.

    And the Yankees’ pen last season wasn’t bad, although we cannot expect Rivera to have another historic season.

    On Peavy: ERA and ERA+ is not the only stat you need look at when looking at pitchers (ERA+ does a far less comprehensive job than OPS+ does).

    Both stats are flawed (OPS+ overrates slugging relative to OBP and ERA+ doesn’t account for defense), but there aren’t much better stats out there. Fact is Peavy did greatly benefit from his park and division.

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